Betting strategies and tactics
Albert Einstein is reputed to have stated, "You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it.
Nevertheless, the numerous even-money bets in roulette have inspired many players over the years to attempt to beat the game by using one or more variations of a Martingale betting strategy, wherein the gamer doubles the bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses, plus win a profit equal to the original bet. This betting strategy is fundamentally flawed in practice and the near-universal long-term consequence is a large financial loss. Another strategy is the Fibonacci system, where bets are calculated according to the Fibonacci sequence. Regardless of the specific progression, no such strategy can statistically overcome the casino's advantage, since the expected value of each allowed bet is negative.
While not a strategy to win money, former Los Angeles Times editor Andrés Martinez described an enjoyable roulette betting method in his book on Las Vegas entitled "24/7". He called it the "dopey experiment". The idea is to divide one's roulette session bankroll into 35 units. This unit is bet on a particular number for 35 consecutive spins. Thus, if the number hits in that time, the gambler wins back the original bankroll and can play subsequent spins with house money. However, there is only a (1 − (37 / 38)35) * 100 = 60.68% probability of winning within 35 spins (assuming a double zero wheel with 38 pockets).
There is a common misconception that the green numbers are "house numbers" and that by betting on them one "gains the house edge. In fact, it is true that the house's advantage comes from the existence of the green numbers (a game without them would be statistically fair); however, they are no more or less likely to come up than any other number.
Various attempts have been made by engineers to overcome the house edge through predicting the mechanical performance of the wheel, most notably by Joseph Jagger at Monte Carlo in 1873. These schemes work by determining that the ball is more likely to fall at certain numbers.
Edward O. Thorp (the developer of card counting and an early hedge-fund pioneer) and Claude Shannon (a mathematician and computer scientist best known for his contributions to information theory) built arguably the first wearable computer to do so in 1961. This system worked by timing the ball and wheel, and therefore predicting the most likely quadrant where the ball would fall. This could be countered simply by closing the table for betting before beginning the spin.
To try to prevent exploits like these, the casinos monitor the performance of their wheels, and rebalance and realign them regularly to try to keep the result of the spins as random as possible.
At least in the 1930s, some professional gamblers were able to consistently gain an edge in roulette by seeking out rigged wheels (not difficult to find at that time) and betting opposite the largest bets.
More recently Thomas Bass, in his book The Eudaemonic Pie 1991 (published as The Newtonian Casino in Britain), has claimed to be able to predict wheel performance in real time. The book describes the exploits of a group of computer hackers, who called themselves the Eudaemons, who in the late 1970s used computers in their shoes to win at roulette by predicting where the ball would fall.
In the early 1990s, Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo used a computer to model the tendencies of the roulette wheels at the Casino de Madrid in Madrid, Spain. Betting the most likely numbers, along with members of his family, he was able to win over one million dollars over a period of several years.
In 2004 it was reported that a group of two Serbs and one Hungarian in London had used a laser scanner hidden inside a mobile phone linked to a computer to predict the sector of the wheel where the ball was most likely to drop. They were arrested, but released without charge as there was no proof they had technically interfered with casino equipment.
Andrucci System
The Andrucci System is a betting system relying on chaos theory. It advises players to track the last twenty to thirty spins at the table, and then bet on the numbers that have appeared more than they statistically should. The Andrucci System can be applied to any casino game, and is also commonly used at craps tables and in keno games. The logic behind the Andrucci System is that in the long run, the numbers will come up the same amount of times, but in the short run, certain numbers will appear more often. By tracking the last 20-30 spins, Andrucci bettors think they can identify the "hot" numbers. To track the spins, players are taught to fill in histograms with every single result.
Labouchere System
The Labouchere System is progression betting strategy like the Martingale but does not require the gambler to risk his stake as quickly with dramatic double ups. The Labouchere System involves using a series of numbers in a line to determine the bet amount, following a win or a loss. Typically, the player adds the numbers at the front and end of the line to determine the size of the next bet. When he wins, he crosses out the outside numbers and continues working on the smaller line. If he loses, then he adds his previous bet to the end of the line and continues to work on the longer line. This is a much more flexible progression betting system and there is much room for the player to design his initial line to his own playing preference.
D'Alembert System
The D'Alembert system, also called montant et demontant (upwards and downwards), is often called a pyramid system. It is based on a mathematical equilibrium theory devised by a French mathematician of the same name. Like the Martingale, this system is mainly applied to the even-money outside bets, and is favored by players who want to keep the amount of their bets and losses to a minimum. The betting progression is very simple: After each loss, one unit is added to the next bet, and after each win, one unit is deducted from the next bet. Starting with an initial bet of, say, 10 units, a loss would raise the next bet to 11 units. If this is followed by a win, the next bet would be 10 units. Another win would lower the next bet to 9 units. The elegance of the D'Alembert system that makes it a classic is: Whenever the number of wins equals the number of losses, the net gain is equal to the number of wins.."'
Using the dozen bet
There are two versions to this system, single dozen bets and double dozen bets. In the single dozen bet version, the player uses a progressively incrementing stake list starting from the casino table minimum, to the table maximum. The aim here is to use a single dozen bet to win before the stake list ends. Many techniques are employed such as: betting on the same dozen to appear after two consecutive appearances, betting on the dozen that has appeared most in the last 15, 9, or 5 spins, betting on the dozen that, after a long absence of 7 or more spins, appears for the first time. The double dozen bet version uses two dozen bets and half the stake list size of the single dozen bet version.
1st and 3rd column strategy
One bet of 2 pieces on the 1st column and one bet of 2 pieces on the 3rd column covers most of the red numbers on the table. One bet of 2 pieces on the black will provide insurance for occurrence of black. This betting system covers nearly all numbers except for the 4 red numbers in the middle column and the zero (and double zero in American Roulette). If the result is a red number in either the 1st or 3rd column, the player only breaks even. If the result is red in the middle column the player loses 6 pieces. If the result is black and in the middle column, the player loses 2 pieces. If the result is a black in the 1st or 3rd column, the player only wins 4 pieces.You could also use the game of the 2/3 that will give the player a maximum of 66.6% chance of win. This "strategy" breaks even in the long run, of course, for the simple reason that any linear combination of zero-expectation bets is itself zero-expectation. In this case, the notion that the black bet provides "insurance" against failure of the red bets overlooks the uneven amounts bet on red versus black and the relative probabilities of success of the various bets, singly or in combinations of two or three wager-components.
Mechanical strategies
There are a number of roulette strategies which take a more mechanical approach to breaking the casino. The most famous is the biased wheel attack. In the biased wheel attack, the player clocks the wheel to find statistical deviations indicating some flaw to the wheel. Given that the wheel is man made it is impossible for the roulette wheel to be perfect. The biased wheel attack seeks to find imperfect wheels and exploit the fact that some wheels will return numbers more often than 1 in 35, which means there is potential to have an edge over the casino. Clocking the wheel involves taking spin results in great numbers to identify any opportunities. Casinos are aware of players who try and mechanically exploit roulette wheels and take protective measures by rotating wheels, changing dealers, and switching roulette ball sizes, making mechanical strategies virtually impossible.
Biased wheels: Section betting In 1982, several casinos in England began to lose large sums of money at their roulette tables to teams of gamblers from the USA. Upon investigation by the police, it was discovered they were using a legal system of biased wheel-section betting. As a result of this, the English roulette wheel manufacturer John Huxley manufactured a roulette wheel to counter-act the problem.
The new wheel, designed by George Melas, was called "low profile" because the pockets had been drastically reduced in depth, and various other design modifications caused the ball to descend in a gradual approach to the pocket area. In 1986, when a professional gambling team headed by Billy Walters won $3.8 million using the system on an old wheel at the Golden Nugget in Atlantic City, every casino in the world took notice, and within one year had switched to the new "low profile" wheel.
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